CQE Working Papers

  • 2023 (Nr. 105-106)

    106/2023
    Multi-horizon uniform superior predictive ability revisited: A size-exploiting and consistent test
    Verena Monschang, Mark Trede, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    105/2023
    A comparison of high-frequency realized variance measures: Duration- vs. return-based approaches
    Björn Schulte-Tillmann, Mawuli Segnon, Timo Wiedemann
    Download (PDF, 1.5 MB)

  • 2022 (Nr. 95-104)

    104/2022
    Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using timevarying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting
    Tore Dubbert
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    103/2022
    Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era
    Dimitrios Kanelis, Pierre L. Siklos
    Download (PDF, 1.0 MB)

    102/2022
    Strict stationarity of Poisson integer-valued ARCH processes of order infinity
    Mawuli Segnon
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    101/2022
    Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve
    Gaygysyz Guljanov, Willi Mutschler, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 0.7 MB)

    100/2022
    Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis
    Tino Berger, Tore Dubbert
    Download (PDF, 2.0 MB)

    99/2022
    Financial-market volatility prediction with multiplicative Markov-switching MIDAS components
    Björn Schulte-Tillmann, Mawuli Segnon, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    98/2022
    Urbanization in Industrialized Countries: Appearances Are Deceptive
    Ludwig von Auer, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 3.3 MB)

    97/2022
    A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction
    Verena Monschang, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 1.0 MB)

    96/2022
    How Central Bank Mandates Influence Content and  Tone of Communication Over Time
    Martin T. Bohl, Dimitrios Kanelis, Pierre L. Siklos
    Download (PDF, 1.3 MB)

    95/2022
    “Evil” Speculators? Evidence from Grain Futures  Trading in Chicago During the Interwar Period
    Elissa A.M. Iorgulescu, Alexander Pütz, Pierre L. Siklos
    Download (PDF, 2.5 MB)

  • 2021 (Nr. 94)

    94/2021
    Algorithmic Collusion: Insights from Deep Learning
    Matthias Hettich
    Download (PDF, 0.7 MB)
  • 2020 (Nr. 90-93)

    93/2020
    Regional labour migration - Stylized facts for Germany  
    Mark Trede, Michael Zimmermann
    Download (PDF, 3.6 MB)

    92/2020
    Exchange rate shocks in multicurrency interbank markets
    Pierre L. Siklos, Martin Stefan
    Download (PDF, 0.8 MB)

    91/2020
    Age-Speci c Entrepreneurship and PAYG Public Pensions in Germany 
    Burkhard Heer, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    90/2020
    Urban population in Germany, 1500–1850 
    Ulrich Pfister
    Download (PDF, 0.9 MB)

  • 2019 (Nr. 78-89)

    89/2019
    Speculation and the Informational Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets
    Martin T. Bohl, Alexander Pütz, Christoph Sulewski
    Download (PDF, 0.7 MB)

     

    88/2019
    “Who pays the piper calls the tune” – Networks and transaction costs in commodity markets
    Alexander Pütz, Pierre L. Siklos, Christoph Sulewski
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    87/2019
    London vs. Leipzig: Price Discovery of Carbon Futures during Phase III of the ETS
    Martin Stefan, Claudia Wellenreuther
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    86/2019
    An Introduction to ESMA’s Commitments of Traders Reports: Do Hedgers Really Hedge?
    Martin T. Bohl, Martin Stefan, Claudia Wellenreuther
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    85/2019
    The ECB's monetary pillar after the financial crisis
    T. Philipp Dybowski, Bernd Kempa
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    84/2019
    Metal Prices Made in China? A Network Analysis of Industrial Metal Futures
    Pierre L. Siklos, Martin Stefan, Claudia Wellenreuther
    Download (PDF, 0.9 MB)

    83/2019
    The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models
    Sergey Ivashchenko, Willi Mutschler
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    82/2019
    Long Memory Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Count Data
    Mawuli Segnon, Manuel Stapper
    Download (PDF, 0.7 MB)

    81/2019
    Big in Japan: Global Volatility Transmission between Assets and Trading Places
    Andreas Masuhr
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    80/2019
    Measurement Errors in Index Trader Positions Data: Is the Price Pressure Hypothesis Still Invalid?
    Martin T. Bohl, Nicole Branger, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 0.8 MB)

    79/2019
    Forecasting Volatility in Cryptocurrency Markets
    Mawuli Segnon, Stelios Bekiros
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    78/2019
    Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test
    Verena Monschang, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.9 MB)

  • 2018 (Nr. 68-77)

    77/2018
    The Impact of Long-Short Speculators on the Volatility of Agricultural Commodity Futures Prices
    Martin T. Bohl, Christoph Sulewski
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    76/2018
    Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896
    Martin T. Bohl, Alexander Pütz, Pierre L. Siklos, Christoph Sulewski
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    75/2018
    Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Speculators Contribute?
    Martin T. Bohl, Pierre L. Siklos, Martin Stefan, Claudia Wellenreuther
    Download (PDF, 0.9 MB)

    74/2018
    Return Dynamics During Periods of High Speculation in a Thinly-Traded Commodity Market
    Martin T. Bohl, Martin Stefan
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    73/2018
    Bayesian Estimation of Generalized Partition of Unity Copulas
    Andreas Masuhr
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    72/2018
    Analyzing Credit Risk Transmission to the Non-Financial Sector in Europe: A Network Approach
    Christian Gross, Pierre Siklos
    Download (PDF, 3 MB)

    71/2018
    Forecasting Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries
    Mawuli Segnon, Stelios Bekiros, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    70/2018
    Randomized Quasi Sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo2
    Fabian Goessling
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    69/2018
    Human Capital, Growth, and Asset Prices
    Fabian Goessling
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    68/2018
    An approach to increasing forecast-combination accuracy through VAR error modeling
    Till Weigt, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.2 MB)

  • 2017 (Nr. 58-67)

    67/2017
    Volatility Transmission in Overlapping Trading Zones
    Andreas Masuhr
    Download (PDF, 6 MB)

    66/2017
    Forecasting Market Risk of Portfolios: Copula-Markov Switching Multifractal Approach
    Mawuli Segnon, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    65/2017
    Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries: a comparative analysis
    Nazmus Sadat Khan
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    64/2017
    Semi-parametric Bayesian Forecasting with an Application to Stochastic Volatility
    Fabian Goessling, Martina Danielova Zaharieva
    Download (PDF, 1.2 MB)

    63/2017
    Examining the Common Dynamics of Commodity Futures Prices
    Christian Gross
    Download (PDF, 2.5 MB)

    62/2017
    Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with an application to international stock-market co-movements
    Martina Danielova Zaharieva, Mark Trede, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 1.1 MB)

    61/2017
    Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data
    Mawuli Segnon, Chi Keung Lau, Bernd Wilfling, Rangan Gupta
    Download (PDF, 0.9 MB)

    60/2017
    Investors'  favourite - A different look at valuing individual labour income
    Jan Voelzke, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Fabian Goessling, Till Weigt
    Download (PDF, 1.5 MB)

    59/2017
    Computing the Substantial-Gain-Loss-Ratio
    Jan Voelzke, Sebastian Mentemeier
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    58/2017
    A new stock-price bubble with stochastically deflating trajectories
    Benedikt Rotermann, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.2 MB)

  • 2016 (Nr. 45-57)

    57/2016
    Should We Like it? - A Social Welfare Based Quantification of Policy Attractiveness
    Jan Voelzke, Fabian Goessling
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    56/2016
    The political economy of interregional competition for firms
    Daniel Hopp, Michael Kriebel
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    55/2016
    Classifying Industries Into Types of Relative Concentration
    Ludwig von Auer, Andranik Stepanyan, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.7 MB)

    54/2016
    Exact expectations - Efficient calculation of DSGE models
    Fabian Goessling
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    53/2016
    On shock symmetry in South America: New evidence from intra-Brazilian real exchange rates
    Christian Rohe
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    52/2016
    Committing to Fiscal Policy: The Influence of the U.S. President on Consumer Confidence and Output
    Philipp Adämmer, T. Philipp Dybowski
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    51/2016
    The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets
    Martin T. Bohl, Christian Gross, Waldemar Souza
    Download  (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    50/2016
    New evidence for explosive behavior of commodity prices
    Jeanne Diesteldorf, Sarah Meyer, Jan Voelzke
    Download  (PDF, 1.6 MB)

    49/2016
    The Economic Effects of U.S. Presidential Tax Communication
    T.P. Dybowski, J.N. Dybowski, P. Adämmer
    Download (PDF, 0.7 MB)

    48/2016
    A Note on the Success of Media Investments: No Predictability, Pure Luck
    Martin T. Bohl, Thomas Ehrmann
    Download (PDF, 0.2 MB)

    47/2016
    Explosive earnings dynamics: Whoever has will be given more
    Sarah Meyer, Mark Trede
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    46/2016
    A new combination approach to reducing forecast errors with an application to volatility forecasting
    Till Weigt, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.2 MB)

    45/2016
    Short selling constraints and stock returns volatility: empirical evidence from the German stock market
    Martin T. Bohl, Gerrit Reher, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 0.8 MB)

  • 2015 (Nr. 37-44)

    44/2015
    Price Discovery in European Agricultural Markets: When Do Futures Contracts Matter?
    Philipp Adämmer, Martin T. Bohl
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    43/2015
    Higher-order statistics for DSGE models
    Willi Mutschler
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    42/2015
    The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis
    Christian Rohe, Matthias Hartermann
    Download (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    41/2015
    Management Compensation, Monitoring and Aggressive Corporate Tax Planning
    Melanie Steinhoff
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    40/2015
    Estimating rational stock-market bubbles with sequential Monte Carlo methods
     Benedikt Rotermann, Bernd Wilfling
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    39/2015
    Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Futures Markets: How Thin is Too Thin?
    Philipp Adämmer, Martin T. Bohl, Christian Gross
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    38/2015
    Price Transmissions During Financialization and Turmoil: New Evidence from North American and European Agricultural Futures
    Philipp Adämmer, Martin T. Bohl, Ernst-Oliver von Ledebur
    Download  (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    37/2015
    The Case of Herding is Stronger than You Think
    Martin T. Bohl, Nicole Branger, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

  • 2014 (Nr. 29-36)

    36/2014
    The Effect of Index Futures Trading on Volatility: Three Markets for Chinese Stocks
    Martin T. Bohl, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Pierre L. Siklos
    Download  (PDF, 0.8 MB)

    35/2014
    Spot Market Volatility and Futures Trading: The Pitfalls of Using a Dummy Variable Approach
    Martin T. Bohl, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Christian A. Salm, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 1.3 MB)

    34/2014
    Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada
    Tino Berger, Bernd Kempa
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    33/2014
    Identification of DSGE Models - the Effect of Higher-Order Approximation and Pruning
    Willi Mutschler
    Download  (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    32/2014
    Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty
    Joscha Beckmann, Rainer Schüssler
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    31/2014
    Weakening the Gain-Loss-Ratio measure to make it stronger
    Jan Voelzke
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    30/2014
    Markets with Technological Progress: Pricing, Quality, and Novelty
    Ludwig von Auer, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.2 MB)

    29/2014
    Forecasting Equity Premia using Bayesian Dynamic Model Averaging
    Joscha Beckmann, Rainer Schüssler
    Download  (PDF, 0.6 MB)

  • 2013 (Nr. 26-28)

    28/2013
    Periodically collapsing Evans bubbles and stock-price volatility
    Benedikt Rotermann, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 0.2 MB)

    27/2013
    Gibrat, Zipf, Fisher and Tippett: City Size and Growth Distributions Reconsidered
    Christian Schluter, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    26/2013
    King's law and food storage in Saxony, c. 1790 - 1830
    Martin Uebele, Tim Grünebaum, Michael Kopsidis
    Download  (PDF, 1 MB)

  • 2012 (Nr. 22-25)

    25/2012
    Economic Reforms and the Indirect Role of Monetary Policy
    Andrea Beccarini
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    24/2012
    From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks
    Martin Bohl, Philipp Kaufmann, Patrick Stephan
    Download  (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    23/2012
    Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach
    Marc Lammerding, Patrick Stephan, Mark Trede, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    22/2012
    Verifying Time Inconsistency of the ECB Monetary Policy by a Regime-Switching Approach
    Andrea Beccarini
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

  • 2011 (Nr. 17-21)

    21/2011
    Weak convergence to the t-distribution
    Christian Schluter, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    20/2011
    The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis
    Max Meulemann, Martin Uebele, Bernd Wilfling
    (Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming)
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    19/2011
    Optimal contract under asymmetric information: the role of options on futures
    Andrea Beccarini
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    18/2011
    Estimating Continuous-Time Income Models
    Christian Schluter, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    17/2011
    Markov-switching GARCH models in finance: a unifying framework with an application to the German stock market
    Gerrit Reher, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 1.0 MB)

  • 2010 (Nr. 10-16)

    16/2010
    Identifying International Business Cycles in Disaggregate Data: Germany, France and Great Britain
    Martin Uebele
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    15/2010
    Consumer prices and wages in Germany, 1500 - 1850
    Ulrich Pfister
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    14/2010
    Explaining Nineteenth-Century Bilateralism: Economic and Political Determinants of the Cobden-Chevalier Network
    Markus Lampe
    Download  (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    13/2010
    A Direct Test of Rational Bubbles
    Friedrich Geiecke, Mark Trede
    Download  (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    12/2010
    The Dynamics of Brand Equity: A Hedonic Regression Approach to the Laser Printer Market
    Ludwig von Auer, Mark Trede
    (Journal of the Operational Research Society, forthcoming)
    Download  (PDF, 0.4 MB)

    11/2010
    Demand Matters: German Wheat Market Integration 1806‐1855 in a European Context
    Martin Uebele
    Download  (PDF, 0.8 MB)

    10/2010
    An Exact Pricing Formula for European Call Options on Zero-Coupon Bonds in the Run-Up to a Currency Union
    Gerrit Reher, Bernd Wilfling
    Download  (PDF, 0.6 MB)

  • 2009 (Nr. 1-9)

    9/2009
    Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China's A-Share Markets?
    Michael Schuppli, Martin T. Bohl
    (Journal of Interantional Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, forthcoming) 
    Download  (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    8/2009
    The Other January Effect: International Evidence
    Martin T. Bohl, Christian A. Salm
    (European Journal of Finance, forthcoming)
    Download  (PDF, 0.2 MB)

    7/2009
    Stock Return Seasonalities and Investor Structure: Evidence from China's B-Share Markets
    Martin T. Bohl, Michael Schuppli, Pierre L. Siklos
    Download  (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    6/2009
    Do Individual Index Futures Investors Destabilize the Underlying Spot Market?
    Martin T. Bohl, Christan A. Salm, Bernd Wilfling
    (Journal of Futures Markets 31 (2011), 81-101) 
    Download  (PDF, 0.9 MB)

    5/2009
    A New Approach to Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Small Open Economies: The Case of Canada
    Tino Berger, Bernd Kempa
    Download  (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    4/2009
    International and National Wheat Market Integration in the 19th Century: A Comovement Analysis
    Martin Uebele
    Download (PDF, 0.6 MB)

    3/2009
    Identification of Speculative Bubbles Using State-Space Models with Markov-Switching
    Nael Al-Anaswah, Bernd Wilfling
    (Journal of Banking and Finance 35 (2011), 1073-1086) 
    Download (PDF, 0.5 MB)

    2/2009
    Effects of Bilateralism and the MFN Clause on International Trade – Evidence for the Cobden-Chevalier Network, (1860-1875)
    Markus Lampe
    Download (PDF, 0.3 MB)

    1/2009
    An Empirical Analysis of the Shanghai and Shenzen Limit Order Books
    Huimin Chung, Jie Lu, Bruce Mizrach
    Download (PDF, 0.