E-Bikes on the Rise: Impact on mode choice and CO2 reduction
In 2023, 1.85 million conventional bicycles and 2.1 million electric bicycles (“e-bike”) were sold in Germany making it the first year in which more e-bikes were sold than conventional bicycles. This trend indicates a growing preference for e-bikes among consumers, so that it is important to study whether increasing sales would also translate into increasing usage of e-bikes. In their new article "Electrifying choices: How electric bicycles impact on mode choice and CO2 emissions", Thomas Hagedorn, Marlena Meier and Jan Wessel analyze (i) the influence of e-bike ownership on transport mode choice and (ii) how a change in e-bike ownership affects CO2 emissions in Germany. Using longitudinal data from household surveys from 2016 to 2022, we first conduct a trip-level analysis with a mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL model) to estimate mode choice probabilities. The results show that the change in e-bike ownership significantly affects travel behavior, by increasing the likelihood of choosing an e-bike as means of transportation by 14.6 percentage points (p.p.), while correspondingly decreasing the likelihood of choosing other modes, especially conventional bicycles by 5.6 p.p, as well as car and public transportation by about 4 p.p each. Second, by using observed changes in individual distances traveled and transport-mode-specific emissions values, we calculate net emissions savings per person after acquiring an e-bike. These savings amount to 526.9 kg CO2 per person and year, which is roughly 6.6% of the average annual total CO2 emissions per capita in Germany. The article is published in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment.
Gernot Sieg from the University of Münster and Berthold U. Wigger from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) introduce the vehicle value externality as a previously unacknowledged cost of car traffic. Unlike established externalities such as emissions or congestion, the vehicle value externality arises from the impact of vehicle value on accident damages. By developing a model linking insurance premiums to this externality and applying it to German car traffic data, the annual aggregate cost are estimated at 10 billion euros in 2021. Since this externality has not been internalized by policy makers so far, too expensive cars are bought in Germany and therefore insurance premiums for cars are too high. The article is published in the journal 
A speed limit for highways is a highly emotional issue in Germany. Economists should contribute methodologically sound facts. In his new commentary, Gernot Sieg considers which aspects of a cost-benefit analysis for a speed limit by Goessling et al (2023) could be improved. The commentary was recently published in the journal Ecological Economics 
On June 11, the Board of Academic Advisers at the BMDV (Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport) celebrated its 75th anniversary with many invited guests in the Erich-Klausener-Saal in Berlin. Federal Minister Dr. Volker Wissing: "Foresight needs science: Since its foundation 75 years ago, the members of the Board of Academic Advisers to the Federal Minister for Digital and Transport have been working with great passion, creative drive and conviction when it comes to further developing our mobility." The Chairman of the Advisory Board, Prof. Gernot Sieg, commented: "The Board of Academic Advisers to the Federal Minister for Digital and Transport is pleased and grateful that its advice is always listened to, that its work is appreciated and that this is being celebrated with a ceremony." After the welcome address by the Federal Minister and the speeches by Parliamentary State Secretary Oliver Luksic and the Chairman of the Advisory Board, Prof. Gernot Sieg, four members of the Advisory Board presented good solutions for transport. In a panel discussion on the topic "Follow the Science: Scientific Policy Advice in Germany" with the Chair of the German Advisory Council on the Environment Prof. Dr. Claudia Hornberg, the President of the Federal Highway Research Institute Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Markus Oeser, the Head of the Road Transport Department at the Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport, Ministerial Director Iris Reimold, the Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Board at the Federal Ministry of Finance, Prof. Jörg Rocholl, PhD, and member of the Scientific Advisory Board and Head of the Institute of Transport, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Vortisch, the guests were able to gain interesting insights into the various scientific policy advisory institutions and to participate with questions. State Secretary Hartmut Höppner concluded the event with his speech.
On 03.06.2024, a guest lecture by Mr. Philipp Trierweiler (Energie-Control Austria) on "Incentive regulation in practice: basic features of the regulatory model of Austrian electricity distribution system operators" will take place as part of the lecture Competition and Regulation by Prof. Dr. Gernot Sieg. All interested parties are welcome to attend.