Finance Research Seminar

Aktuelle Informationen

Das Finance Research Seminar findet während der Vorlesungszeit am Dienstag von 16.15 Uhr bis 17.45 Uhr (im Raum JUR 253) statt. Die Einladung zur Veranstaltung enthält das jeweilige Veranstaltungsformat, in Präsenz, via Zoom oder hybrid. Das Seminar ist gemeinsam organisiert von Nicole Branger, Nadja Guenster, Thomas Langer, Andreas Pfingsten und Christoph Schneider.

Bei Fragen zur Veranstaltung wenden Sie sich bitte an Mira Maslej, mira.maslej@wiwi.uni-muenster.de.

Das FR-Seminar findet als Präsenzveranstaltung im JUR 253 statt. Zusätzlich wird ein Zoom Meeting angeboten.

 
WinterSEMESTER 2025/2026

Datum

Vortragender

Vortragstitel

30.09.2025

Prof. Dr. Eric Johnson

Columbia University

Exposing omitted moderators: Explaining why effect sizes differ in the social sciences with implications for research practices.

Policymakers increasingly rely on behavioral science in response to global challenges, such as climate change or global health crises. But applications of behavioral science face an important problem: Interventions often exert substantially different effects across contexts and individuals. We examine this heterogeneity for different paradigms that underlie many behavioral interventions. We study the paradigms in a series of five pre-registered studies across one in-person and 10 online panels, with over 11,000 respond-ents in total. We find substantial heterogeneity across settings and paradigms, apply techniques for modeling the heterogeneity, and introduce a framework that measures typically omitted moderators. The framework’s factors (Fluid Intelligence, Attentiveness, Crystallized Intelligence, and Experience) affect the effectiveness of many text-based interventions, producing different observed effect sizes and explaining variations across samples. Moderators are associated with effect sizes through two paths, with the intensity of the manipulation and with the effect of the manipulation directly. Our results motivate observing these moderators and provide a theoretical and empirical framework for understanding and predicting varying effect sizes in the social sciences.   We conclude with a discussion of how to apply these results to improve research in the social sciences.

Sondertermin

Mittwoch,

01.10.2025

Prof. Dr. Elke U. Weber

Princeton University

Query Theory: A Process Account of Constructed Judgments and Preferences

Query Theory (QT) describes the process of generating and aggregating internal evidence about the merits of different judgment or choice options for the purpose of arriving at a judgment or choice.  Its assumptions about selective attention and goal-directed memory retrieval provide a unified explanation of a broad set of behavioral anomalies. QT assumes that boundedly-rational decision makers issue sequential queries to their episodic and semantic memory that request arguments in support of a specific choice option, one option at a time, but switching between options. The returned evidence is aggregated, and the option with greater support at the time of decision is selected. Critically, the request for evidence supporting the first-considered option temporarily inhibits arguments for all other options that are response competitors, making evidence supporting later-queried options harder to access when subsequent queries turn to them. Normatively irrelevant features of the way a choice is presented can be shown to influence initial attention and hence query order and choice, including incumbency or status-quo (which option is the behavioral or recommended default), surface appeal (an attractive label or image), or mechanics of the choice situation such as presentation order or reading order.  The causal role of query order is established by prompting respondents in a QT study explicitly to reverse the order of queries from their "natural" order (i.e., the order aligned with the framing condition) to the reverse or “unnatural” order, which greatly attenuated the effect of frame on judgment or choice. A meta-analysis of 27 QT studies confirms all QT assumptions and shows that an average effect size of .34 for the effect of decision frame on query order. QT processes have also been shown to mediate the influence of social norms on attitudes and behaviors, where norm information directs initial attention on norm-congruent arguments and thus influences policy support.

 
07.10.2025

Asst. Prof.
Daniel Urban

Erasmus Universität Rotterdam

Board Gender Quotas and Female Borrowing: Evidence from Loan-Level Data

We examine how female board representation affects banks' lending to female-led firms, using Italy's mandatory gender quota and loan-level data. As banks increase female board presence, they lend more to female-led firms on both extensive and intensive margins, including smaller firms, without increasing non-performing exposures. Female borrowers see an increase in credit availability beyond reallocation effects and show higher post-quota growth, indicating real economic effects. We also uncover organizational changes: banks promote more women among rank-and-file employees, which can explain female credit growth. Our findings highlight how board-level gender diversity can shape credit allocation and influence broader organizational outcomes.

18.11.2025

Dr. Christian Breitung

Technical University of Munich und TUM School of Management, Heilbronn

Text Is All You Need: Asset Pricing Without Returns

How should investors value firms without return histories? When trading data are missing, investors typically rely on industry betas as coarse proxies for systematic risk, introducing valuation errors whenever firm-specific exposures differ from peer norms. Using IPOs as a natural laboratory, I show that textual risk disclosures can substitute for missing return data. I develop Aggregated Cluster Embeddings (ACE), which convert qualitative risk narratives into structured firm-level representations. Disclosure-based betas reduce market beta prediction errors by up to 27 percent relative to standard benchmarks (industry betas). However, investors underweight this information at issuance, and firms whose disclosures imply lower risk than their industry peers are initially undervalued, yielding monthly six-factor alphas of 97 basis points. These excess returns fade as return histories accumulate, consistent with markets gradually learning firm-specific covariances. The results highlight a mechanism of information substitution and investor inattention in pricing firms without trading histories.

25.11.2025

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Jantke de Boer

RUB Bochum

FX Dealer Constraints and External Imbalances 
(joint with Stefan Eichler)

We empirically test Gabaix and Maggiori (2015)'s prediction that currencies are repriced by the country's external capital dependence when financial constraints of FX intermediaries change. Using solvency indicators, we develop a novel intermediary constraints index capturing riskbearing capacity. We find that constraints are a priced risk factor in currency portfolios sorted by countries' net foreign assets. Portfolios of external debtors (creditors) have higher (lower) intermediary risk premia, but pay lower (higher) returns when constraints tighten. Tightening constraints are associated with a depreciation of countries with low net foreign assets, particularly emerging markets with high net debt and low FX reserves.

16.12.2025

Prof. Dr. Lars Norden

Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (EPGE)

tbd.

 
SommerSEMESTER 2025

Datum

Vortragender

Vortragstitel

27.05.2025

Craig R. Fox, Ph.D.

University of California at Los Angeles

Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty 

In my talk I will argue that people maintain dual intuitions about the nature of uncertainty, and these intuitions can have a critical impact on a wide range of judgments and choices. We attribute the first form of uncertainty to deficiencies in our information, expertise, and/or mental model of relevant events (knowable or “epistemic” uncertainty); we attribute the second form of uncertainty to causal systems whose behavior is inherently stochastic or unpredictable (random or “aleatory” uncertainty). In the first part of my talk I’ll show that people intuitively distinguish uncertainty along these two dimensions: it is reflected in their use of natural language and can be measured reliably using a simple rating scale that loads on two independent factors. In the second part of my talk I’ll show implications of the epistemic-aleatory distinction for understanding judgmental overconfidence, ambiguity aversion, consumer financial decision making, managerial evaluation, and other empirical phenomena.

17.06.2025

Prof. Dr.
Matthias Pelster

Universität Duisburg-Essen

Ranking concerns or reference points: The impact of communicating expected payoffs in experimental studies

Online platforms such as CloudResearch, Amazon MTurk, or Prolific require researchers to communicate average expected payoffs to participants prior to experiments. We show that knowledge of expected payoffs introduce confounding effects in experimental studies on risk-taking. We use the literature that shows that individuals with lower ranks take higher risks as a playground. Our experimental design disentangles this ranking effect from a reference point effect introduced by the average expected payoff. Holding the rank constant, risk-taking is 18.23% higher below the reference point on average. Holding the reference point distance constant, ranks have no significant effect on risk-taking. These results are robust to nonsocial settings and alternative risk-taking measures.
08.07.2025

Asst. Prof. Mete Kilic

University of Southern California Marshall School of Business

 

 
15.07.2025

Ahmet Ali Taskin, Ph.D.

FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg & IAB - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Monetary policy, the bank-lending channel and labor market adjustment of firms

This paper studies the real effects of monetary policy on firms’ labor adjustment. Using detailed bank, firm and worker data for Germany, we find that firms reduce employment in response to contractionary monetary policy. We show that this employment reduction results from a relative decline in inflows rather than outflows. Inflows fall in particular for low-wage workers, whereas firms retain high-wage workers. We interpret this as evidence for labor hoarding. Using variation in the bank exposure to monetary policy, we show that these results are driven by the exposure of the firm to the bank-lending channel.

 

 

 

  • Vorträge vergangener Semester

     
    WinterSEMESTER 2024/25

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    22.10.2024

    Prof. Dr. Steven Ongena

    Universität Zürich

    Joining Forces: Why Banks Syndicate Credit

    Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans. Our findings contradict the hypothesis that reputable borrowers graduate to the syndicated loan market.
    29.10.2024

    Prof. Dr. Neslihan Ozkan

     Universität Bristol

    Politics of Bank Lending: Empirical Evidence from Brown Borrowing

    This study examines the interplay between banks’ political connections and lending to brown borrowers. A bank’s political connection is captured based on whether a bank is headquartered in the state with a member from the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. We find that banks headquartered in states with a Banking Committee senator provide cheaper loans to brown borrowers than banks without a Banking Committee senator in their headquarter state. This finding suggests that politically connected banks can play a significant role in delaying the green transition as they extend loans to brown firms at a low rate. In addition, our results show that the effect of a bank’s political connection on the cost of lending to brown borrowers is more pronounced when the senator is senior, when borrowers, lenders, and banking committee senators are from the same state, or when the party of the Senate is Republican, or when there is a competitive re-election race. Overall, we provide novel evidence on how the politics of bank lending can have implications for green transition.
    05.11.2024

    Asst. Prof. Dr. Paulo Rodrigues

     Maastricht Universität

    Solving Dynamic Portfolio and Consumption Problems by Going Forward in Time

    The standard approach to solving dynamic portfolio and consumption problems numerically uses backward induction, which complicates the solution if decisions at time t depend on past decisions. In contrast, our solution algorithm goes forward in time. We use the insight that the main task in solving dynamic optimization problems consists of finding policy functions that use the current value of state variables as inputs and give the optimal decisions as outputs. Instead of assuming a functional form for these policy functions, we use a neural network for the estimation of the functions.

    12.11.2024
    im K322

    Assoc. Prof. Jörg Stahl

     Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics

    The value of organized networking: Evidence from the World Economic Forum

    Several studies document a positive impact of social interaction on business activity and economic outcomes. While the literature identifies several ways of forming social ties, there is little evidence on the value of participating in business events that foster networking. In this paper, we analyze the value of having access to one such event - the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF). We compile a novel dataset of public firms that participate at least once in the meeting between 2013 and 2023. Participants experience positive abnormal equity returns in the days leading to the respective meeting. We identify M&A activity as a channel that can rationalize the value effects. Meeting participants have larger number of deals and higher deal values following the meeting compared to a matched control sample.
    07.01.2025

    Dr.Gerrit Liedtke

     Universität Bremen

    Cross-Asset Trend Spillover: A Novel Factor for Corporate Bond Returns

    We propose XTREND, a cross-asset trend factor for corporate bond returns that captures spillovers from equity market price and volume data. Using two decades of U.S. data, we apply machine learning techniques to extract information from various technical indicators, including moving averages, oscillators, and volatility measures. The resulting signal reliably predicts corporate bond returns, demonstrating robust performance across credit quality and market conditions. XTREND expands existing bond pricing models, thus, providing a more complete explanation of the cross-section of bond returns. Finally, we find that the XTREND factor is robust across 1.6 million research designs and has a probability far above 50\% to be part of the stochastic discount factor after sampling over one quadrillion models.
    14.01.2025

    Prof. Dr. Christian Fieberg

    HSB Hochschule Bremen

    The Devil in the Details: A Multiverse View of Pockets of Predictability

    The growing complexity of forecasting models increases the number of decision nodes in the research process, raising the risk of overfitting to specific design choices. We illustrate this issue using the recent concept of “pockets of predictability,” which posits that return predictability is time-varying and that short windows of high predictability can be identified ex-ante. In this study, we reassess the robustness and practical applicability of this approach. By analyzing a multiverse of 19,440 variations of the original methodology, we find that its effectiveness depends critically on various seemingly minor methodological decisions. Furthermore, return predictability has declined significantly in recent decades, and the potential economic gains are highly sensitive to trading costs. Overall, strategies based on pockets of predictability should be approached with caution.
    28.01.2025

    Prof. Dr. Stefanie Kleimeier

     Maastricht Universität

    AUFGESCHOBEN bis auf Weiteres!

     
    SommerSEMESTER 2024

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    16.04.2024

    Prof. Dr. Matthias Efing

    HEC Paris

    Risk Managers in Banks

    Some bank regulators warn that risk managers (RMs) will collude with banks’ front offices (FOs) and rubberstamp investments if their bonuses depend on the performance of FOs. We show theoretically that positive pay correlation between FOs and RMs can instead be optimal. Based on data for German non-executive bank employees, we show empirically that performance pay is indeed positively correlated between RMs and FOs in practice. These pay correlations tend to be higher in banks with competent directors and in banks with stronger performance during the crisis of 2008, in line with our model predictions.
    07.05.2024

    Prof. Dr. Christoph Merkle

     Aarhus Universität

    Nudging Investors towards Sustainability - A Field Experiment with a Robo - Advisor

    In a field experiment with a German robo-advisor, we manipulate default investment settings including whether the investment follows sustainability principles or not. 1,629 new customers complete the manipulated onboarding and invest real money. 50% invest sustainably when sustainable investing is the default, but only 22% invest sustainably when the conventional investment is the default. In a survey with a subset of these investors (response rate 30%), we find that beliefs strongly depend on the selected investment. Almost all conventional investors expect higher returns and a better risk-return trade-off from the conventional investment in line with financial theory. However, a majority of sustainable investors believes that the sustainable investment will outperform. While sustainability preferences also predict investment behavior, the strong return focus contradicts the view that investors are willing to forgo substantial returns for a sustainable investment.
    14.05.2024

    Prof. Dr. Tim Adam

     Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

    Rating-Sensitive Bonds

    We test whether firms issue rating-sensitive bonds (RSB) as a signal of their credit quality. We find that upon announcement the issuer’s stock and bond prices increase significantly, while the issuer’s CDS spread declines. Firms subject to higher information asymmetries and firms just above the non-investment grade threshold are more likely to issue RSB, especially during periods of market distress. RSB issuers are ex-post more likely to experience a credit rating improvement relative to regular bond issuers. These results are consistent with RSBs being a credible signaling device.
    28.05.2024

    Prof. Dr. Steffen Hitzemann

     Universität von Houston

    Does Sustainable Investing Make Stocks Less Sensitive to Information about Cash Flows?

    Traditional finance theory asserts that stock prices depend on expected future cash flows. We explore how the growing prominence of non-pecuniary preferences in the form of sustainable investing alters this core financial relationship. Using the setting of earnings announcements, we find that sustainable investing diminishes stock price sensitivity to earnings news by 45%-58%. This decline in announcement-day returns is mirrored by a comparable drop in trading volume. This effect persists beyond the immediate announcement period, implying a lasting alteration in price formation rather than a short-lived mispricing. Our findings suggest that sustainable investing reduces the significance of cash flows in shaping stock prices.
    04.06.2024

    Prof. Dr. Mete Kilic

     USC Marshall-Universität

    Risk and Risk-Free Rates

    Risk-free interest rates and the VIX index comove negatively on average, as predicted by precautionary savings. But this comovement turns positive on FOMC days. This pattern is consistently observed across a diverse array of risk-free interest rates, including nominal, real, swap, short-term, and long-term rates. Our high-frequency analysis reveals that the positive impact of monetary policy shocks on financial market risk drives this result. We provide an explanation for these findings in a model where levered investors akin to financial intermediaries hold and price a risky asset, such as equity. Upon an unexpected positive monetary policy shock, equilibrium interest rates and levered investors' borrowing costs increase persistently. This raises investors' leverage and the volatility of stochastic discount factor, leading to lower risk appetite and amplified financial market risks.
    09.07.2024

    Dr. William Quinn

    Queen's University Belfast

    Who Wins and Loses in a Bubble? Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania

    How do different types of investors perform during financial bubbles? Using a rich archival source, we explore investor performance during the British bicycle mania of the 1890s. We find that directors and employees of cycle companies reduced their holdings substantially during the crash. Those holding shares after the crash were generally not from groups stereotypically thought of as naïve, but gentlemen living near a stock exchange, who had sufficient time, money, and opportunity to engage in speculation. Our findings suggest that the investors most at risk of losing during a bubble are those prone to familiarity and overconfidence biases.
    WinterSEMESTER 2023/2024

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    05.12.2023

    Prof. Dr. Steffen Meyer

    Aarhus Universität

    Ambiguity and private investors’ behavior after forced fund liquidations

    We investigate individual investors' decisions under time-varying ambiguity (VVIX) using a setting of plausibly exogenous forced mutual fund liquidations at a German brokerage. Investors reinvest 87% out of forced liquidations when the refund occurs on a day of low ambiguity and 0% when it occurs on a day of high ambiguity. Instead of reinvesting, investors keep the refund in their cash holdings. The effect reverses approximately six months after the liquidation. If investors reinvest, they decrease their risk-taking under ambiguity. Our results are not driven by rebalancing decisions, experiencing losses, or attention and are robust to alternative measures of ambiguity.
    12.12.2023

    Prof. Dr. Daniel Rettl

     Universität Georgia

    Hedge Fund Activists' Skill

    Hedge fund activism generates persistent performance, but heterogeneity in performance suggests that some hedge fund activists are more skilled than others. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian estimation algorithm to isolate a time-invariant activist-specific skill component from cumulative abnormal returns. We find considerable differences in this skill component of cumulative abnormal announcement returns of up to 13 - 20 percentage points between the top and bottom skill quintile of hedge fund activists. Out-of-sample tests confirm that our skill estimates are informative about future performance. Differences in skill are also evident in hedge fund activists' campaign characteristics. The most skilled activists are associated with higher target firm takeover premiums, improved long-term target performance, and more versatile use of campaign tactics.
    23.01.2024

    Prof. Dr. Ralf Elsas

     LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

    Payment for Order Flow and Market Quality: A Field Experiment

    The success of so-called neo-brokers has re-sparked the regulatory debate about potentially detrimental effects of payment for order flow, culminating in a recent proposal by the Commission of the European Union to ban such arrangements. This study presents results of a field experiment conducted in cooperation with a large German neo-broker. On treatment days, large amounts of retail orders from randomly selected stocks were routed to the main market, Xetra, instead of being executed at a trading venue with payment for order flow. We observe various standard measures of liquidity and informational efficiency before, during and after the treatment, both for the treatment and a control group of similar stocks. Our difference-in-differences analyses allow for clean identification of the causal effect of payment for order flow on stock market quality. We do not observe a significant change in any of the market quality measures we consider. The analysis thus does not lend support to the claim that payment for order flow negatively affects market quality in the main market.
    30.01.2024

    Prof.Dr. Harald Hau

    Universität Geneva

    Discretionary Administrative Power and Conflicts of Interest in China’s IPO Approvals

    China’s IPO approval process co-opts audit firm representatives into the regulatory decision body, which creates conflict of interest and potential channels for corruption. We show evidence that these auditors (i) do not differ in their auditing practise of already listed firm from similar professionals, but (ii) attract more IPO clients that do not comply with the listing requirements, and thus achieve higher revenue growth, (iii) increase their own client’s chance of IPO approval, which (iv) afterwards often underperform. The two-year stock underperformance in term of the abnormal buy and hold return reaches −18 percent for the marginally approved IPOs with conflicted auditors, which is indicative of a misrepresentation of firm prospects at the IPO stage.
    SommerSEMESTER 2023

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    09.05.2023

    Prof. Dr. Heiko Jacobs

    Universität Duisburg-Essen

    News, noise, hype? Media sentiment and price run-ups

    We empirically test competing hypotheses about the role of financial media sentiment in price run-ups. Our global analysis of unusual price increases in long-only as well as long/short stock market segments provides no evidence of media slant. This assessment is further supported, among others, by the analysis of thematically focused articles, by the study of price discovery during media strikes as well as by the analysis of media sentiment in the context of twin stocks. Overall, our findings are consistent with the informative nature of the financial media.
    tba

    Dr. Sabine Bernard

     Goethe University Frankfurt

    tba
     

    WinterSEMESTER 2022/23

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    08.11.2022

    Dr. Doron Reichmann

     Ruhr-University Bochum

    Listen Closely:
    Using Vocal Cues to Predict Future Earnings

    In this study, we aim to advance the prediction of firm earnings – an important task for many business applications. While existing earnings prediction models only rely on numerical financial data, we hypothesize and find that vocal cues from manager speech yield substantial predictive power. Our vocal cue models significantly outperform models based on detailed financial data and textual inputs. We further analyze the models' economic value to investment practitioners. We find that investors can use the models' earnings forecasts to implement trading strategies that beat the market by 8.8% on average per year. Moreover, financial analysts can use vocal cues to improve their earnings forecast accuracy by more than 40%. Collectively, our results imply that managers' vocal cues are important information signals for future earnings that investment practitioners currently overhear.

    15.11.2022

    Prof. Klaus Schäck

    University of Bristol

    The Lending Channel of Bank Climate Stress Tests

    We ask how bank climate stress test affects firm outcomes. Using the French Bank Climate Risk Stress Test in 2020 as a natural experiment, we find initial results that stress tested banks reduce credit supply and charge higher interest rates for high emitters in the syndicated loan markets. We propose to examine how high emitters that linked to stress tested banks change their investment. Our results shed light on the debate about the role of banks in promoting a carbon-neutral economy.
    29.11.2022

    Prof. Dr. Oliver Spalt

    Universität Mannheim

    The Impact of Institutional Investors on Equity Prices: Evidence From A Reform of U.S. Trust Law

    We study the equity market implications of a reform in the laws that govern trust investments, implemented in a staggered fashion across U.S. states from 1986 to 2007. The introduction of the prudent investor rule systematically alters the relative attractiveness of stocks within the cross-section of U.S. equities for trust funds. As trust funds account for a substantial fraction of institutional equity holdings in our sample period, our empirical setting provides a rare opportunity to study the impact of a regulatory change on institutional investor holdings and relative prices in the U.S. equity market. We show that in response to the law change, trusts rebalance their portfolios away from “prudent” stocks, which were implicitly advantaged under the old regulatory regime. Stocks bought by trusts after the law change substantially outperform stocks sold by those funds. The return effects are long-lasting and do not revert over the next 12 months. The results in our paper suggest that shocks to institutional investor demand can have a profound and sustained influence on stock prices and that regulatory changes can have large indirect, and potentially unintended, consequences for market prices.

     

    06.12.2022

    Assistenz Prof. Roberto Steri

    University of Luxembourg

    Credit Market Equivalents and the Valuation of Private Firms

     

    We propose to value leveraged buyout investments by credit market equivalents (CME). Our method relies on the observation that portfolio companies held by private equity funds have loans traded in secondary markets. We exploit their market valuations by constructing a stochastic discount factor that prices loan returns of private equity portfolios from deal-level data. We identify a credit factor model to price buyout cash flows to derive their CME valuation. We find no evidence for buyout outperformance after controlling for credit market factors. Our method works whenever credit and private equity markets are sufficiently integrated, for which we provide evidence. 

    17.01.2023

    Associate Prof. Andras Danis

    Central European University CEU Wien

    Shadow Inflation​

     

    We use cell phone tracking data to document an increase in wait times at U.S.establishments in 2021. The results are consistent with a sudden increase in demand, coupled with severe labor constraints. The results are particularly pronounced in the restaurant industry, and the increase is particularly large at restaurants in non-white neighborhoods. We estimate that the increase in wait time creates an aggregate opportunity cost of up to $5 billion per month for American consumers. If wait time were added as an expense in the CPI consumption basket, inflation would have been up to 2 percentage points higher in the food away from home category. Finally, we show that an increase in wait time can predict future inflation. Our results suggest that wait times in the U.S. have started to increase already in 2020 in some industries,well before the supply chain disruptions of 2021. 

    24.01.2023

    Assistenz Prof.
    Ole Wilms

    Universität Hamburg

    Asset Pricing with Disagreement about Climate Risks

     

    This paper presents an asset-pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs regarding the impacts of climate change. Investors disagree on the likelihood of climate-induced disaster risks that could destroy a large fraction of consumption. The model jointly explains several findings that have been established in the empirical literature on climate finance. That is, (i) news about climate change can be hedged in financial markets, (ii) the share of green investors has significantly increased over the past decade, (iii) investors require a positive, although small, climate-risk premium for holding “brown" assets, and (iv) “green" stocks have outperformed brown stocks during the past decade. Furthermore, the model may explain why investments to mitigate climate change have been small in the past. Finally, the model predicts that the marginal gain from carbon reducing investments as well as the carbon premium should increase significantly if the rise in global temperature continues.  

    31.01.2023

    Assistenz Prof. Rüdiger Weber

    WU Wien

    Is there an Equity Duration Premium?​

     

    Equity duration is a measure of discount-rate sensitivity that is driven by both, stock-specific cash-flow timing and stock-specific discount-rate levels. Established measures of equity duration using market-price information derive their predictive power for returns from using market-implied discount rates. We introduce new measures of pure cash-flow timing which disentangle discount-rate level from cash-flow timing information. Our results indicate an unconditionally flat relationship between timing and average returns. However, it turns out that in recessions (expansion episodes), there is a negative (positive) relation between cash-flow timing and average stock returns. 

    07.02.2023

    Prof. Dr. Merih Sevilir

    ESMT Berlin

    Auf den Herbst 2023 verschieben!

     

     

    SommersEMESTER 2022

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    03.05.2022

    Prof. Dr. Stefanie Kleimeier

     Open University & Maastricht University

    Contracts, Collateral and Culture: Gender Effects in Retail Loans​

     

    We analyze gender differences in interest rates using unusually rich data on retail loans from a bank in Vietnam—a country where women traditionally make financial decisions. After ruling out gender differences in information, credit risk, and default rates, women pay marginally lower interest rates. The gender gaps differ between loans with and without an exogenous collateralization requirement suggesting that the micro context of loan negotiations matters. In support of the pivotal role of the contracting environment,we exploit historical differences between South and North Vietnam and show that women pay comparably lower rates in the more matriarchal cultural context.

    WINTERSEMESTER 2020/21

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    10.11.2020

    Bjoern Imbierowicz

    Deutsche Bundesbank

    How Are Banks Special? – Let Me Count the Ways

    Die Veranstaltung wird digital als Zoom-Meeting stattfinden.

    22.12.2020

    David Schreindorfer

    Arizona State University, Tempe, USA

    Persistent Crises and Levered Asset Prices

    Die Veranstaltung wird digital als Zoom-Meeting stattfinden.

    Sommersemester 2020

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    28.04.2020

    Dr. Thomas Post

    Associate Professor of Finance, Open University & Maastricht University

    Household Finance 0.5 or 2.0? Eliciting Individuals’ Financial Decision-Making Approaches

     

     

    26.05.2020

    André Uhde

    Universität Paderborn

    Tax avoidance through securitization

     

     

    WIntersemester 2019/20

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

         

    SOMMersemester 2019

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel
    02.07.2019

    Sebastian Gehricke

    University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

    Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long-term mean

    Achtung!

    Die Veranstaltung findet bereits um 12:15 Uhr im J 253 statt.

    09.07.2019

    Toni Ahnert

    Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    Bank Competition, Bank Runs and Opacity

    Wintersemester 2018/19

    Datum

    Vortragender

    Vortragstitel

    18.12.2018

    Oliver Entrop

    Universität Passau

    Optimal Early Exercise Strategies under Transaction and Decision Costs
    15.01.2019

    Sven Klingler

    BI Oslo, Department of Finance

     

    How Safe are Safe Haven?

    • Vorträge vergangener Semester

      SOMMERSEMESTER 2018

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      29.05.2018

      Theresa Spickers

      Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
      Fakultät für Betriebswirtschaft
      Institut für Kapitalmärkte und Finanzwirtschaft

      Firms’ self-assessed climate risk and asset pricing

      Wintersemester 2017/18

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      19.12.2017

      Lars Norden
      Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE),
      Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) Rio de Janeiro

      Does Uniqueness in Banking Matter?

      30.01.2018

      Olav Korn
      Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

      Stock Illiquidity and Option Returns

      Sommersemester 2017

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      23.05.2017

      Florian S. Peters
      University of Amsterdam (UvA)

      Optimism Propagation

      13.06.2017

      Bryan Foltice
      Butler University

      Exponential Growth Bias Matters: Evidence and Implications for Financial Decision Making of College Students in the U.S.A.

      20.06.2017

      Valeri Sokolovski
      Stockholm School of Economics 
      from June 2017
      HEC Montreal

      Crowds, Crashes, and the Carry Trade

      04.07.2017

      Christian Leuz 
      University of Chicago 
      Booth School of Business

      Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street? Investor Participation in Market Manipulation

      11.07.2017

      Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt 
      University of Cologne

      Concentration Bias in Intertemporal Choice

      18.07.2017

      Elisabeth Kempf 
      University of Chicago 
      Booth School of Business

      Canary in a Coalmine: Securities Lending Predicting the Performance of Securitized Bonds

      Wintersemester 2016/17

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      18.10.2016

      Christine Laudenbach 
      Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main

      Personal reminders and commitment: debt management as a natural experiment

      15.11.2016

      Tobin Hanspal 
      Copenhagen Business School

      Once Bitten, Twice Shy: The Role of Inertia and Personal Experiences in Risk Taking

      13.12.2016

      Gesa-Kristina Petersen 
      LMU München

      What we say is who we are - How fund manager profiles and their strategies predict fund investment and performance

      24.01.2017

      Valeriya Dinger 
      University of Osnabrück

      Systemic Effects of Bank Equity Issues: Competition, Stabilization and Contagion

      31.01.2017

      Olesya V. Grishchenko 
      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.

      The term structure of interest rates with short-term and long-term risks

      07.02.2017

      Philipp Krueger 
      University of Geneva

      The Sustainability Footprint of Institutional Investors

      Sommersemester 2016

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      03.05.2016

      Matthias Sutter 
      Universität zu Köln

      Where to look for the morals in markets?

      24.05.2016

      Karl Schmedders 
      Universität Zürich

      Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Agents and Long-Run Risk

      07.06.2016

      Philipp Illeditsch 
      Wharton

      Disagreement about Inflation and the Yield Curve

      14.06.2016

      Milica Mormann 
      University of Miami

      Visual Finance: The Role of Salience and Attention in Financial Decision Making

      19.07.2016

      Dirk Simons 
      Universität Mannheim

      Do Mandatory Liquidity Disclosures Foster or Forestall Coordination Failures?

      Wintersemester 2015/16

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      27.10.2015

      Thorsten Hens 
      Universität Zürich

      Designing Risk Profiler in the Laboratory

      17.11.2015

      Harald Scheule 
      University of Technology Sydney

      Credit risk in mortgage portfolios

      01.12.2015

      Ruediger Fahlenbrach 
      École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

      How Do Investors and Firms React to an unexpected Currency Appreciation Shock?

      Sommersemester 2015

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      07.04.2015

      Stefanie Kleimeier 
      Universität Maastricht

      The Resurgence of Cultural Borders in International Finance during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Eurozone Cross-Border Depositing

      21.04.2015

      Jürgen Eichberger 
      University of Heidelberg

      Ambiguity and Games

      05.05.2015

      Martin Hibbeln 
      Technische Universität Braunschweig

      Informational Synergies in Consumer Credit

      19.05.2015

      Paul Ehling 
      BI Norwegian Business School

      Disagreement and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

      23.06.2015 

      Stefan Zeisberger 
      Stony Brook University, New York

      All's Well that Ends Well? On the Importance of How Returns are Achieved

      27.07.2015 

      Michael Weber 
      University of Chicago

      The Term Structure of Equity Returns: Risk or Mispricing?

      Wintersemester 2014/15

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      21.10.2014

      Sébastien Pouget 
      University of Toulouse

      Testing asset pricing theory on six hundred years of stock returns

      04.11.2014

      Jennifer Coats 
      Colorado State University

      The Effect of Ambiguity on Risk Management Choices: An Experimental Study

      16.12.2014

      Carsten Erner 
      UCLA Anderson School of Management

      Consumer Financial Well-Being

      27.01.2015

      Michael Viehs 
      University of Oxford

      Carbon Disclosure and Cost of Debt

      03.02.2015

      Jasmin Gider 
      University of Bonn

      Deterring Illegal Insider Trading

      Sommersemester 2014

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      08.04.2014

      Erik Kole 
      Erasmus University Rotterdam

      How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?

      22.04.2014

      Tobias Berg 
      University of Bonn

      Playing the Devil’s Advocat: The Causal Effect of Risk Management on Loan Quality

      06.05.2014

      Andreas Richter 
      LMU Munich

      Endogenous Information and Adverse Selection under Loss Prevention

      13.05.2014

      Guillermo Baquero 
      European School of Management and Technology, Berlin

      The Convexity and Concavity of the Flow-Performance Relationship for Hedge Funds

      20.05.2014

      Jeroen Derwall 
      Maastricht University

      Does Insider Trading Add Credibility to Firm Product Innovation?

      27.05.2014

      Tim Kroencke 
      University of Mannheim

      Asset Pricing without Garbage

      17.06.2014

      Christoph Merkle 
      University of Mannheim

      Financial Loss Aversion Illusion

      01.07.2014

      Giuliano Curatola 
      Goethe University Frankfurt

      Loss aversion, habit formation and the term structure of equity and interest rates

      Wintersemester 2013/14

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      22.10.2013

      Kolja Loebnitz

      Liquidity-Adjusted Capital Requirements and Their Model-Free Properties

      29.10.2013 

      Christian Koziol 
      University of Tübingen

      The Risk with Low Volatility Stocks

      12.11.2013

      Sarah Qian Wang 
      University of Warwick

      Credit Default Swaps and Corporate Cash Holdings

      19.11.2013

      Arvid O. I. Hoffmann 
      Maastricht University

      Technical Analysis and Individual Investors

      26.11.2013

      Hendrik Hakenes 
      University of Bonn

      Regulatory Capture by Sophistication

      03.12.2013

      Stefan Ruenzi 
      University of Mannheim

      Extreme Dependence and Asset Pricing: Returns and Liquidity

      21.01.2014

      Ulrich Schmidt 
      Kiel Universitity

      Overconfidence and Risk Taking of Ethiopian Farmers

      04.02.2014

      Paulo Rodrigues 
      Maastricht University

      Values and investments: Evidence from institutional trading responses to news components

      Sommersemester 2013

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      27.05.2013

      Alex Stomper 
      Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

      The Politics of Related Lending

      03.06.2013

      Stefan Zeisberger 
      University of Zurich

      Do Investors Overreact to Small but Frequent Losses? An Experimental Analysis

      17.06.2013

      Norman Seeger 
      VU University Amsterdam

      Out-of-Sample Performance of Jump-Diffusion Models for Equity Indices: What the Financial Crisis was Good for

      15.07.2013

      Stefan Ankirchner 
      Bonn University

      Hedging Forward Positions: Basis Risk vs. Liquidity Costs

      Wintersemester 2012/13

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      30.10.2012

      Antje Mahayni 
      University of Duisburg-Essen

      Optimizing Proportional Portfolio Insurance Strategies - From Theory to Practice

      13.11.2012

      Thomas Post 
      Maastricht University

      What Makes Investors Optimistic, What Makes Them Afraid?

      27.11.2012

      Rainer Haselmann 
      University of Bonn

      Capital Regulation and Banks' Lending Behavior

      03.12.2012

      Ralf Meisenzahl 
      Federal Reserve Board

      The Real Effects of Credit Line Drawdowns

      08.01.2013

      Ralf Elsas 
      LMU Munich

      From Underleverage to Excess Debt: The Changing Environment of Corporate Debt

      22.01.2013

      Joachim Grammig 
      University of Tübingen

      Creative Destruction and Asset Prices

      Wintersemester 2011/12

      Datum

      Vortragender

      Vortragstitel

      11.10.2011

      Matthias Muck 
      University of Bamberg

      Optimal Exercise Strategies for Open-End Turbo Certificates

      22.11.2011

      Antoon Pelsser 
      Maastricht University

      Robustness, Model Ambiguity and Pricing

      13.12.2011

      André Betzer 
      University of Wuppertal

      Strategic Trading and Trade Reporting by Corporate Insiders

      17.01.2012

      Maik Schmeling 
      Leibniz Universität Hannover

      Order Flow, Private Information, and Currency Risk Premia

      31.01.2012

      Monika Trapp 
      University of Cologne

      Fund manager allocation