Am Dienstag, den 27.05.2025, findet ein Vortrag im Rahmen des Finance Research Seminars statt. Das Seminar beginnt um 16:15 Uhr im JUR 253 in der Universitätsstraße 14-16. Im Sommersemester 2025 wird das Finance Research Seminar in Präsenz durchgeführt. Für Interessenten wird ein Zoom Meeting angeboten. Die Zugangsdaten werden auf Anfrage mitgeteilt. Bitte senden Sie hierfür eine Nachricht bis zum 27.05.2025, 12:00 Uhr an Mira.Maslej@wiwi.uni-muenster.de.

Craig Fox, Ph.D.
University of California at Los Angeles

hält einen Vortrag zum Thema:

“Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty”

In my talk I will argue that people maintain dual intuitions about the nature of uncertainty, and these intuitions can have a critical impact on a wide range of judgments and choices. We attribute the first form of uncertainty to deficiencies in our information, expertise, and/or mental model of relevant events (knowable or “epistemic” uncertainty); we attribute the second form of uncertainty to causal systems whose behavior is inherently stochastic or unpredictable (random or “aleatory” uncertainty). In the first part of my talk I’ll show that people intuitively distinguish uncertainty along these two dimensions: it is reflected in their use of natural language and can be measured reliably using a simple rating scale that loads on two independent factors. In the second part of my talk I’ll show implications of the epistemic-aleatory distinction for understanding judgmental overconfidence, ambiguity aversion, consumer financial decision making, managerial evaluation, and other empirical phenomena.