A new stock-price bubble with stochastically deflating trajectories

Rotermann Benedikt, Wilfling Bernd


Abstract
We propose a new, rational stock-price bubble that is able to generate recurringly explosive and stochastically deflating trajectories. Our flexible bubble process entails stock-price volatility dynamics that are consistent with real-world data. To demonstrate this, we fit our bubble specification to NASDAQ data and analyze the volatility dynamics.

Keywords
Present-value model; Evans bubble; incompletely bursting bubble; stock-price volatility; particle-filter estimation



Publication type
Working paper

Peer reviewed
No

Publication status
Published

Year
2017

Volume
58/2017

Title of series
CQE-Working-Papers

Publisher
Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster

Place
University of Muenster

Language
English