Modeling and forecasting financial-market volatility

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Projektstatus	laufend
Projektzeitraum	seit 01.01.2020
Schlüsselwörter	Ökonometrie; Zeitreihenanalyse; stochastische Volatilitätsmodelle; bedingte Heteroskedastizitätsmodelle

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In all types of financial markets (stocks, currencies, commodities, energy), volatility is a key variable (i) for the valuation of contingent claims, and (ii) for measuring the effectiveness and credibility of policy shifts anticipated by market participants (e.g. announced regulatory interventions). In this project, we (i) design new (probabilistic) volatility models for (univariate and high-dimensional) financial-market time series, (ii) establish the associated estimation frameworks and forecasting tools, and (iii) apply our procedures to real-world financial data.