Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are increasingly replacing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) – but what does this mean for public revenues? In their new article "Antriebswende und Straßenverkehrsabgaben: Prognosen und Strategien" (Electric Vehicle Transition and Road Transport Levies: Forecasts and Strategies), Maria Kennel, Gernot Sieg, and Berthold Wigger examine the impact of the electric vehicle transition on public revenues from motorized individual transport in Germany, currently around 51.2 billion euros per year. Since the energy tax as the largest revenue component does not apply to BEV, revenues will decline significantly with increasing fleet electrification and are projected to halve by 2050 relative to the 2024 baseline without policy intervention.
Using a dynamic simulation model, the authors compare five policy instruments (driving electricity tax, road pricing, vignette, motor vehicle tax increase, and energy tax increase) to offset the emerging revenue gap. For each instrument, they determine the required levy level and evaluate the scenarios with respect to efficiency, distribution, predictability, financing, and transition.
Road pricing scores highest on efficiency. The driving electricity tax is the least regressive. Only the energy tax increase accelerates the transition to electric mobility but cannot sustain the revenue target beyond 2040.

The article is published in the ORDO Yearbook. Link to Article.
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