Refereed Publications


  • Segnon, M., Gupta, R., Wilfling, B., 2024. Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks. International Journal of Forecasting 40, 29-43.
  • Börger, C., Kempa, B., 2024. Real exchange rate convergence in the euro area: Evidence from a dynamic factor model. International Review of Economics and Finance 89, 213–224.


  • Heer, B., Trede, M., 2023. Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany. Journal of Macroeconomics 75: 103488, DOI.
  • Beccarini, A., Kempa, B., 2023. Modelling time-varying heterogeneity in panel data as regime-switching. Annals of Economics and Statistics (Ann Econ Stat) 151, 81–120.
  • Berger, T., Kempa, B., Zou, F., 2023. The role of macroeconomic uncertainty in the determination of the natural rate of interest. Economics Letters 229.
  • Dubbert, T., 2023. Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions — an agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting. Applied Economics, Online, 1–17.
  • Hüpper, F., Kempa, B., 2023. Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds. Journal of Macroeconomics 75, 1–13.
  • Bailkowski, J., Bohl, M., Perera, D., 2023. Commodity Futures Hedge Ratios: A Meta-Analysis. Journal of Commodity Markets 30 (June).
  • Bohl, M., Irwin, S., Pütz, A., Sulewski, C., 2023. The impact of financialization on the efficiency of commodity furtures markets. Journal of Commodity Markets 31 (September).
  • Bohl, M., Kanelis, D., Siklos, P., 2023. Central Bank Mandates: How Differences Can Influence the Content and Tone of Central Bank Communication. Journal of International Money and Finance 130.


  • Bialkowski, J., Bohl, M., Perera, D., 2022. Is the Tracking Error Time Varying? Evidence from Agricultural ETCs. Research in International Business and Finance, 63 (December).
  • Bohl, M., Branger, N., Trede, M., 2022. Measurement Errors in Index Trader Positions Data: Is the Price Pressure Hypothesis Still Invalid?. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 44(3), 1534-1553.
  • Segnon, M., Lau C.K., Wilfling, B., Gupta, R., 2022. Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 26, 73-98.


  • Stapper, M., 2021. Count Data Time Series Modelling in Julia - The CountTimeSeries.jl Package and Applications. Entropy 23(6), 666. Open access.
  • Monschang, V., Wilfling, B., 2021. Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test. Empirical Economics 61, 145-172. Open access.
  • Weigt, T., Wilfling, B., 2021. An approach to increasing forecast-combination accuracy through VAR error modeling. Journal of Forecasting 40, 686-699. Open access.
  • Gawellek, B., Lyu, J., Suessmuth, B., 2021. Geo-politics and the impact of China’s outward investment on developing countries: evidence from the Great Recession. Emerging Markets Review 48. DOI.
  • Bohl, M., Campani, C., de Oliveira, F., Palazzi, R.,  Souza, W., 2021. Framework to Structure the Brazilian Electricity Futures Market. International Journal of Energy Sector Management 15(5), 914-932.
  • Bohl, M., Pütz, A., Siklos, P., Sulewski, C., 2021. Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension — Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896. Journal of Futures Markets 41(2), 226-244.
  • Siklos, P.,  Stefan, M., 2021. Exchange rate shocks in multicurrency interbank markets. Journal of Financial Stability 55, August, Article 100888.
  • Bohl, M., Pütz, A., Sulewski, C., 2021. Speculation and the Informational Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets. Journal of Commodity Markets 23, September, Article 100159.


  • Danielova Zaharieva, M., Trede, M., Wilfling, B., 2020. Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with application, Econometric Reviews 39(9), 947-970. Open access.
  • Trede, M., 2020. Maximum likelihood estimation of high-dimensional Student-t copulas. Statistics and Probability Letters 159, article 108678.
  • Masuhr, A., Trede, M., 2020. Bayesian estimation of generalized partition of unity copulas. Dependence Modeling 8, 119-131.
  • Ivashchenko, S., Mutschler, W., 2020. The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models. Economic Modelling 88, 280-292, DOI.
  • Bialkowski, J., Perera, D.,  Bohl, M. 2020. Does the Tea Market Require a Futures Contract? Evidence from the Sri Lankan Tea Market. Research in International Business and Finance 54, December, Article 101290.
  • Bohl M., Siklos P., Stefan M., Wellenreuther C., 2020. Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Speculators Contribute?,  Journal of Commodity Markets, 18.
  • Bohl, M., Ehrmann, T.,  Wellenreuther, C., 2020. The Far Reaching Implications of Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Non-Predictability of Media Investment. Applied Economics Letters 27(18), 1505-1508.
  • Bohl, M., Stefan, M., 2020. Return Dynamics During Periods of High Speculation in a Thinly Traded Commodity Market, Journal of Futures Markets 40(1), 145-159.
  • Groß C., Siklos P., 2019. Analyzing Credit Risk Transmission to the Non-Financial Sector in Europe: A Network Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics 35(1), 61-81.
  • Pütz, A., Siklos, P.,  Sulewski, C., 2020. Networks and trade costs in commodity markets during the late nineteenth century: A new dataset and evidence. European Review of Economic History 24(4), 675-695.
  • Siklos, P., Stefan, M., Wellenreuther, C., 2020. Metal Prices Made in China? A Network Analysis of Industrial Metal Futures. Journal of Futures Markets 40(9), 1354-1374.
  • Stefan, M., Wellenreuther, C., 2020. London vs. Leipzig: Price Discovery of Carbon Futures during Phase III of the ETS, Economics Letters, 188.
  • Dybowski, T. P.,  Kempa, B., 2020. The European Central Bank’s monetary pillar after the financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 121.
  • Khan, N., 2020. Revisiting the effects of NAFTA. Economic Analysis and Policy 68, 1-16.
  • Khan, N., 2020. Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries. Eurasian Economic Review 10, 489-512.
  • Khan, N., 2020. Spillover effects of trade shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic countries. Journal of Economic Integration 35(1), 39-68.
  • Riedel, J., 2020. On real interest rate convergence among G7 countries. Empirical Economics 59(2), 599-626.


  • Schluter, C. Trede, M., 2019. Size Distributions Reconsidered. Econometric Reviews 38, 695-710.
  • Beccarini, A., 2019. Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification. Empirical Economics 56, 775-796.
  • von Auer, L., Stepanyan, A., Trede, M., 2019. Classifying Industries into Types of Relative Concentration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 182, 1017-1037.
  • Segnon, M., Antonakakis, N., Cunado, J., Gupta, R., 2019. Revisiting the twin deficits hypothesis: A quantile cointegration analysis over the period 1791 - 2013.  Journal of Applied Economics 20, 116-130.
  • Bohl, M., Brzeszczynski, J., & Serwa, D., 2019. Pension Funds, Large Capital Inflows and Stock Returns in a Thin Market. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 18(3), 347-387.
  • Bohl, M.,  Sulewski, C., 2019. The Impact of Long-Short Speculators on the Volatility of Agricultural Commodity Futres Prices. Journal of Commodity Markets 16, December.
  • Bohl, M., Groß, C., Souza, W., 2019. The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets. International Review of Economics and Finance 60(March), 203-215.
  • Wellenreuther, C., Voelzke, J., 2019. Speculation and Volatility - A Time-Varying Approach applied on Chinese Commodity Futures Markets. Journal of Futures Markets 39(4), 405-417.
  • Hanisch, M., 2019. US monetary policy and the euro area. Journal of Banking and Finance 100, 77-96.
  • Kempa, B., Khan, N., 2019. Global macroeconomic repercussions of US trade restrictions: Evidence from a GVAR model. International Economic Journal 33(4), 649-661.
  • Berger, T.,  Kempa, B., 2019. Testing for time variation in the natural rate of interest, Journal of Applied Econometrics 34(5), 836–842.
  • Riedel, J., Slany, A., 2019. The potential of African trade integration - Panel data evidence for the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 28(7), 843-872, DOI.


  • Dybowski, T. P.,  Adämmer, P., 2018. The Economic Effects of U.S. Presidential Tax Communication: Evidence from a Correlated Topic Model. European Journal of Political Economy 55, 511-525.
  • Bohl, M., Essid, B., Siklos, P., 2018. Short-Selling Bans and the Global Financial Crisis: Are they Inter-Connected? Applied Economics Quarterly 64(2), 159-177.
  • von Auer, L., Trede, M., 2018. Markets with Technological Progress: Pricing, Quality and Novelty. Journal of Economics 124(2), 121-137.
  • Dybowski, T. P., Hanisch, M., Kempa, B., 2018. The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: Evidence from a TVP-BVAR model. Empirical Economics 55(2), 471-494.
  • Bekiros, S., Gupta, R., Segnon, M., Wohar, M.E., 2018. Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty. Journal of Forecasting 37, 571-559.
  • Mutschler, W., 2018. Higher-order statistics for DSGE models. Econometrics and Statistics 6, 44-56.
  • Segnon, M., Bekiros, S., Wilfling, B., 2018. Forecasting inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries. Econometrics 6(2), Article 23, 1-25.
  • Rotermann, B., Wilfling, B., 2018. A new stock-price bubble with stochastically deflating trajectories. Applied Economics Letters 25, 1091-1096.
  • Adämmer, P.,  Bohl, M., 2018. Price Discovery Dynamics in European Agricultural Markets. Journal of Futures Markets 38 (5), 549-562.
  • Berger, T., Grabert, S., 2018. International output and inflation uncertainty and their impact on countries‘ macroeconomic performance: Evidence from a dynamic GARCH-in-mean model. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22 (5), 1113-1133.
  • Bohl, M., Siklos, P.,  Wellenreuther, C., 2018. Speculative Activity and Returns Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures. Journal of Asian Economics 54 (February),  69-91.
  • Dybowski, T. P., 2018. Tracing the Role of Foresight in the Effects of U.S. Tax Policy: Evidence from a Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregression. Macroeconomic Dynamics 22 (4), 754-778.
  • Dybowski, T. P.,  Adämmer, P., 2018. The Economic Effects of U.S. Presidential Tax Communication: Evidence from a Correlated Topic Model. European Journal of Political Economy 55, 511-525.
  • Dybowski, T. P., Hanisch, M., Kempa, B., 2018. The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: Evidence from a TVP-BVAR model. Empirical Economics 55(2), 471-494.
  • Kempa, B, 2018. Leitwährungsstatus des US-Dollar: Quo vadis?. Wirtschaftsdienst 98(10), 691-694.
  • Kempa, B., 2018. Taylor rule reaction coefficients and real exchange rate persistence. Bulletin of Economic Research 70 (1), 64–73.


  • Shekhar , C., Trede, M., 2017. Portfolio Optimization Using Multivariate t-Copulas with Conditionally Skewed Margins. Review of Economics and  Finance 9, 71-83.
  • Goessling, F., 2017. Exact Expectations: Efficient Calculation of DSGE Models. Computational Economics, 1-14.
  • Bohl, M.T., Branger, N., Trede, M., 2017. The Case for Herding is Stronger than You Think. Journal of Banking and Finance 85, 30-40.
  • Berger, T.,  Grabert, S., Kempa, B., 2017. Global macroeconomic uncertainty. Journal of Macroeconomics 53, 42-56.
  • Adämmer, P., Bohl, M.,  von Ledebur, E.-O., 2017. Dynamics Between North American and European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil and Financialization. Bulletin of Economic Research 69 (1), 57-76.
  • Dybowski, T.P., Hanisch, M., Kempa, B., 2017. The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: Evidence from a TVP-BVAR model. Empirical Economics (), 1–24.
  • Hanisch, M., Kempa, B., 2017. The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 42, 70–88.
  • Hanisch, M., 2017. The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan. Journal of International Money and Finance 70, 110-134.
  • Kempa, B.,  Khan, N., 2017. Spillover effects of debt and growth in the euro area: evidence from a GVAR model. International Review of Economics and Finance 49, 102-111.
  • Segnon, M., T. Lux, Gupta, R., 2017. Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 69, 692-704.


  • Adämmer, P., Bohl, M., Groß, C., 2016. Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Futures Markets: How Thin is Too Thin?. Journal of Futures Markets 36 (9), 851-869.
  • Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., Segnon, M., 2016. The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency markov-switching vector autoregressive approach. Journal of Economics 10, 1-20.
  • Beccarini, A., 2016. Bias correction through filtering omitted variables and instruments. Journal of Applied Statistics  43 (4), 754-766.
  • Beccarini, A., 2016. Verifying Time Inconsistency of the ECB Monetary Policy by Means of a Regime-Switching Approach. Empirica. Journal of European Economics. DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9316-8.
  • Bohl, M., 2016. Treiben Indexfonds Agrarrohstoffpreise? Nein!. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 17 (2), 1-18.
  • Bohl, M., Czaja, M.-G., Kaufmann, P., 2016. Momentum Profits, Market Cycles, and Rebounds: Evidene from Germany. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 61, 139-159.
  • Bohl, M.T., Diesteldorf, J., Salm, C.A., Wilfling, B., 2016. Spot market volatility and futures trading: The pitfalls of using a dummy variable. Journal of Futures Markets 36, 30-45.
  • Bohl, M., Klein, A., Siklos, P., 2016. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding. Credit and Capital Markets 49, 193-220.
  • Bohl, M., Michaelis, P., Siklos, P., 2016. Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth and financial crises. Economic Modeling 53 (February), 195-207.
  • Bohl, M.T., Reher, G., Wilfling, B., 2016. Short selling constraints and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from the German stock market. Economic Modelling 58, 159-166.
  • Kempa, B.,  Khan, N. S., 2016. Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: Are there any causal linkages? Applied Economics Letters 23 (6), 440-443.
  • Khan, N., 2016. In search of causality between debt and growth: A graph theoretic approach. Economics Bulletin 36 (2), 677–687.
  • Lux, T., Segnon, M., Gupta, R., 2016. Forecasting crude oil price volatility and value-at-risk: Evidence from historical and recent data. Energy Economics 56, 117-133.
  • Reher, G., Wilfling, B., 2016. A nesting framework for Markov-switching GARCH modelling with an application to the German stock market. Quantitative Finance 16, 411-426.
  • Schluter, C.,  Trede, M., 2016. Weak convergence to the Student and Laplace distributions. Journal of Applied Probability 53, 121-129.
  • Schüssler, R.,  Trede, M., 2016. Constructing minimum-width confidence bands. Economics Letters 145, 182-185.


  • Adämmer, P., Bohl, M., 2015. Speculative Bubbles in Agricultural Prices. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 55 (February 2015), 67-76.
  • Beccarini, A., 2015. Another Look at the Boom and Bust of Financial Bubbles. Annals of Economics and Finance 16-2, 417-423.
  • Białkowski, J., Bohl, M., Stephan, P., Wisniewski, T., 2015. The gold price in times of crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis (International Review of Financial Analysis) 41, 329-339.
  • Bohl, M., Diesteldorf, J., Siklos, P., 2015. The Effect of Index Futures Trading on Volatility: Three Markets for Chinese Stocks. China Economic Review 34 (July 2015), 207-224.
  • Bohl, M., Kaufmann, P., Siklos, P., 2015. What Drove the Mid-2000s Explosiveness in Alternative Energy Stock Prices? Evidence from U.S., European and Global Indices. International Review of Financial Analysis 40 (July 2015), 194-206.
  • Hassani, H., Ghodsi, Z., Gupta, R., Segnon, M., 2015 Forecasting Home Sale in the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy Using Singular Spectrum Analysis. Computational Economics.
  • Hassani, H., Silva, E. S., Gupta, R., Segnon, M., 2015. Forecasting the price of gold. Applied Economics 47, 4141-4152.
  • Kempa, B., Khan, N.S., 2015. On the size of government spending multipliers in Europe. Applied Economics 47 (51), 5548-5558.
  • Pfister, U., 2015. The quantitative development of Germany’s international trade during the eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Revue de l’OFCE 140, 175-221.
  • Pfister, U., Kopsidis, M., 2015. Institutions vs. demand: determinants of agricultural development in Saxony, 1660–1850, European Review of Economic History 19 (3), 275–293.
  • Trede, M., Ullmann, R., 2015. Interquartilsbandbreiten bei der Ermittlung von Verrechnungspreisen: Average-Methode und Pooling-Methode. zfbf: Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 67, 329-366.


  • Beccarini, A., 2014. Solving the liquidity constraint by options on futures. Journal of Mathematical Economics 51, 116-120.
  • Berger, T., Kempa, B., 2014. Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada. Journal of Macroeconomics 39, 203-214.
  • Meulemann, M., Uebele, M., Wilfling, B., 2014. The restoration of the gold standard after the US civil war: A volatility analysis. Journal of Financial Stability  12, 37-46.
  • Reher, G., Wilfling, B., 2014. The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime. International Review of Economics and Finance 29, 483-496.
  • Rotermann, B., Wilfling, B., 2014. Periodically collapsing Evans bubbles and stock-price volatility. Economics Letters 123, 383-386.


  • Beccarini, A., 2013. Economic Reforms and the Indirect Role of Monetary Policy. Applied Economic Letters 20 (5), 432-435.
  • Bialkowski, J.P., Bohl, M.T., Kaufmann P., Wisniewski, T.P., 2013. Do Mutual Fund Managers Exploit the Ramadan Anomaly? Evidence from Turkey. Emerging Markets Review 15, 211-232.
  • Bohl, M.T., Javed, F., Stephan, P.M., 2013. Do Commodity Index Traders Destabilize Agricultural Futures Prices? Applied Economics Quaterly 59 (2), 125-148.
  • Bohl, M.T., Kaufmann, P., Stephan, P.M., 2013. From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks. Energy Economics 37, 40-51.
  • Bohl, M.T., Klein, A.C, Siklos, P.L., 2013. Are Short Sellers Positive Feedback Traders? Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Financial Stability 9 (3), 337-346.
  • Kempa, B., Riedel, J., 2013. Nonlinearities in exchange rate determination in a small open economy: Some evidence for Canada. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 24 (1), 268-278.
  • Lammerding, M., Stephan, P., Trede, M., Wilfling, B., 2013. Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach. Energy Economics 36, 491-502.
  • Savu, C., Trede, M., 2013. Do Stock Returns have an Archimedean Copula? Journal of Applied Statistics 40, 1764-1778.
  • Uebele, M., 2013. What drives commodity market integration? Evidence from the 1800s, CESifo Economic Studies 57 (2), 412-442.


  • Auer, L. v., Trede, M., 2012. The Dynamics of Brand Equity: A Hedonic Regression Approach to the Laser Printer Market. Journal of the Operational Research Society 63, 1351-136.
  • Berger, T., Kempa, B., 2012. Taylor rules and the Canadian-US equilibrium exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (5), 1060-1075.
  • Bohl, M.T., Goodfellow, C., 2012. Forestalling Floor Closure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the German Stock Market. Applied Economics 44 (6), 793-802.
  • Hendriks, T., Kempa, B., Pierdzioch, C., 2012. Do banks' buy and sell recommendations influence stock market volatility? Evidence from the German DAX30. European Journal of Finance 18 (1), 29-39.


  • Al-Anaswah, N., Wilfling, B., 2011. Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching. Journal of Banking and Finance 35, 1073-1086.
  • Berger, T., Kempa, B., 2011. Bayesian estimation of the output gap for a small open economy: The case of Canada. Economics Letters 112, 107-112.
  • Bohl, M.T., Lischewski, J., Voronkova, S., 2011. Pension Funds' Performance in Strongly Regulated Industries in Central Europe: Evidence from Poland and Hungary. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 47 (3), 80-94.
  • Bohl, M.T., Salm, C.A., Schuppli, M., 2011. Price discovery and investor structure. Journal of Futures Markets 31, 282-306.
  • Bohl, M.T., Salm, C.A., Wilfling, B., 2011. Do individual index futures investors destabilize the underlying spot market? Journal of Futures Markets 31, 81–101.
  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., Mayes, D., 2011. The Quality of Monetary Policy and Inflation Performance: Globalization and its Aftermath. The Manchester School 79, 617-645.
  • Brueggemann, R., Riedel, J., 2011. Nonlinear Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the UK. Economic Modelling 28, 1174-1185.
  • Heimann, T., Trede, M., 2011. A Continuous-Time Model of Income Dynamics. Journal of Income Distribution 20, 104-116.
  • Hendricks, T., Kempa, B., 2011. Monetary policy and the credit channel, broad and narrow. Eastern Economic Journal 37, 403-416.
  • Kempa, B., Wilde, W., 2011. Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals. Economic Modelling 28, 2622-2627.
  • Sondermann, D., Trede, M., Wilfling, B., 2011. Estimating the degree of interventionist policies in the run-up to EMU. Applied Economics 43, 207-218.
  • Uebele, M., 2011. National and International Market Integration in the 19th Century: Evidence from Comovement. Explorations in Economic History 48, 226-242


  • Beccarini, A., 2010. Eliminating the omitted variables’ bias by a regime switching approach. Journal of Applied Statistics 37, 57–75.
  • Berger, T., Everaert, G., 2010. Labour taxes and unemployment: Evidence from a panel unobserved component model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 354–364.
  • Bohl, M.T., Schuppli, M., Siklos, P.L., 2010. Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China’s B-share markets. China Economic Review 21, 190–201.
  • Bohl, M.T., Salm, C.A., 2010. The other January effect: International evidence. The European Journal of Finance 16, 173–182.
  • Hendricks, T.W., Kempa, B., Pierdzioch, C., 2010. Do local analysts have an informational advantage in forecasting stock returns? Evidence from the German DAX30. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 24, 137–158.
  • Ng, W. L., Trede, M., 2010. High-frequency Index Returns: The Stylized Facts Revised. Empirical Economics Letters 9, 145-156.
  • Savu, C., Trede, M., 2010. Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas. Quantitative Finance 10, 295–304.


  • Beccarini, A., 2009. The impact of labour market partial reforms on workers’ productivity: The Italian case. International Journal of Applied Economics 6, 1–9.
  • Berger, T., Everaert, G., 2009. A replication note on unemployment in the OECD since the 1960s: What do we know? Empirical Economics 36, 479–485.
  • Bohl, M.T., Brzeszczyński, J., Wilfling, B., 2009. Institutional investors and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Financial Stability 5, 170–182.
  • Bohl, M.T., Goodfellow, C., Gebka, B., 2009. Together we invest: Individual investors’ trading behaviour in Poland. International Review of Financial Analysis 18, 212–221.
  • Gelman, S., Wilfling, B. 2009. Markov-switching in target stocks during takeover bids. Journal of Empirical Finance 16, 745–758.
  • Hendricks, T., Kempa, B., 2009. The credit channel in U.S. economic history. Journal of Policy Modeling 31, 58–68.
  • Hoffmann, M., Kempa, B., 2009. A Poole analysis in the new open economy macroeconomic framework. Review of International Economics 7, 1074–1097.
  • Lampe, M., 2009. Effects of bilateralism and the MFN clause on international trade – Evidence for the Cobden-Chevalier Network (1860 – 1875). Journal of Economic History 69, 1011–1039.
  • Puzanova, N., Siddiqui, S., Trede, M., 2009. Approximate value-at-risk calculation for heterogeneous loan portfolios: Possible enhancements of the Basel II methodology. Journal of Financial Stability 5, 374–392.
  • Ritschl, A., Uebele, M, 2009. Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from spectral analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics 31, 35–57.
  • Sarferaz, S., Uebele, M., 2009. Tracking down Germany’s pre World War I business cycle: A dynamic factor model for 1820–1913. Explorations in Economic History 46, 368–387.
  • Siklos, P.L., Bohl, M.T., 2009. Asset prices as indicators of euro area monetary policy: An empirical assessment of their role in a Taylor rule. Open Economies Review 69, 500–527.
  • Sondermann, D., Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., 2009. The euro area stock market channel: Does one size fit all? Finance Research Letters 6, 230–235.
  • Wilfling, B., 2009. Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification. Journal of International Money and Finance 28, 240–270.


  • Beccarini, A. 2008. Interest rates and business cycles fluctuations: A focus on higher moments. Studies in Economics and Econometrics 3, 123–134.
  • Berger, T., Everaert, G., 2008. Unemployment persistence and the NAIRU: A Bayesian approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 55, 282–299.
  • Bohl, M.T., Döpke, J., Pierdzioch, C., 2008. Real-time forecasting and political stock market anomalies: Evidence for the US. The Financial Review 43, 323–335.
  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., 2008. Empirical evidence on feedback trading in mature and emerging stock markets. Applied Financial Economics 18, 1379–1389.
  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., Sondermann, D., 2008. European stock markets and the ECB’s monetary policy surprises. International Finance 11, 117–130.
  • Hartmann, D., Kempa, B., Pierdzioch, C., 2008. Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance 15, 468–480.
  • Hendricks, T., Kempa, B., 2008. Asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in Europe: Evidence from Markov-switching regressions. Journal of Economic Integration 23, 873–895.
  • Richter, A., Trede, M., 2008. Intertemporal consistency of predictors of business administration students’ performance in economics courses: Bootstrapping a structural equation model. Journal of the Academy of Business Education 9, 72–88.
  • Savu, C., Trede, M., 2008. Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric families of Archimedean copulas. Quantitative Finance 8, 109–116.
  • Schluter, C., Trede, M., 2008. Identifying multiple outliers in heavy-tailed distributions with an application to market crashes. Journal of Empirical Finance 15, 700–713.
  • Siklos, P.L., Bohl, M.T., 2008. Policy words and policy deeds: The ECB and the euro. International Journal of Finance and Economics 13, 247–265.


  • Beccarini, A., 2007. Investment sensitivity to interest rates in an uncertain context: Is a positive relationship possible? Economic Change and Restructuring 40, 223–234.
  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., Werner, T., 2007. Do central banks react to stock markets? The case of the Bundesbank. Journal of Banking and Finance 31, 719–733.
  • Siklos, P.L., Bohl, M.T., 2007. Do actions speak louder than words? Evaluating monetary policy at the Bundesbank. Journal of Macroeconomics 29, 368–386.
  • Trede, M., Wilfling, B., 2007. Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: An application to Greek EMU data. Empirical Economics 33, 23–39.
  • Zeisberger, S., Langer, T., Trede, M., 2007. A note on myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. Finance Research Letters 4, 127–136.


  • Bialkowski, J., Bohl, M.T., Serwa, D., 2006. Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turmoil periods. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46, 397–412.
  • Bohl, M.T., Brzeszczyński, J., 2006. Do institutional investors destabilize stock prices? Evidence from an emerging market. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 16, 370–383.
  • Bohl, M.T., Gottschalk, K., 2006. International evidence on the democrat premium and the presidential cycle effect. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 17, 107–120.
  • Bohl, M.T., Reitz, S., 2006. Do positive feedback traders act on Germany’s Neuer Markt? Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics 44, 3–14.
  • Gebka, B., Henke, H., Bohl, M.T., 2006. Institutional trading and stock return autocorrelation: Empirical evidence on Polish pension fund investors’ behavior. Global Finance Journal 16, 233–244.


  • Kempa, B., 2005. Exchange rate disconnect in a standard open-economy macro model. Open Economies Review 16, 283–293.
  • Kempa, B., 2005. An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability. Economic Modelling 22, 439–458.
  • Korczak, P., Bohl, M.T., 2005. Empirical evidence on cross-listed stocks of central and eastern European companies. Emerging Markets Review 6, 121–137.
  • Serwa, D., Bohl, M.T., 2005. Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European capital markets. Economic Systems 29, 344–362.
  • Siklos, P.L., Bohl, M.T., 2005. The Bundesbank’s communications strategy and policy conflicts with the federal government. Southern Economic Journal 72, 395–409.
  • Voronkova, S., Bohl, M.T., 2005. Institutional traders’ behavior in an emerging stock market: Empirical evidence on Polish pension fund investors. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 32, 1537–1560.
  • Wisniewski, T., Bohl, M.T., 2005. The information content of registered insider trading under lax law enforcement. International Review of Law and Economics 25, 169–185.


  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., 2004. The Bundesbank’s monetary policy and asymmetries in the German term structure. Review of International Economics 12, 495–508.
  • Bohl, M.T., Siklos, P.L., 2004. The present value model of US stock prices redux: A new testing strategy and some evidence. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 44, 208–223.
  • Heer, B., Trede, M., 2004. Taxation of labour and capital income in an OLG model with home production and endogenous fertility. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues 4, 73–88.


  • Bohl, M.T., Sell, F.L., 2003. The demand for money by private firms in a regulated economy: Theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence for Germany 1960 – 1998. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali 50, 451–474.
  • Bohl, M.T., Henke, H., 2003. Trading volume and stock market volatility: The Polish case. International Review of Financial Analysis 12, 513–525.
  • Bohl, M.T., 2003. Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market? International Review of Economics and Finance 12, 385–397.
  • Heer, B., Trede, M., 2003. Efficiency and distribution effects of a revenue-neutral income tax reform in Germany. Journal of Marcoeconomics 25, 87–107.
  • Pfister, U., 2003. Die Entstehung der europäischen Weltwirtschaft (ca. 1450 – 1850): ein endogenes Modell. Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte 2, 57–81.
  • Schluter, C., Trede, M., 2003. Local versus global assessment of mobility. International Economic Review 44, 1313–1335.
  • Wilfling, B., 2003. Interest rate volatility prior to monetary union under alternative pre-switch regimes. German Economic Review 4, 433–457.


  • Kempa, B., 2002. Is Europe converging to optimality? On dynamic aspects of optimum currency areas. Journal of Economic Studies 29, 109–120.
  • Schluter, C., Trede, M., 2002. Tails of Lorenz curves. Journal of Econometrics 109, 151–166.
  • Schluter, C., Trede, M., 2002. Statistical inference for inequality and poverty measurement with dependent data. International Economic Review 43, 185–200.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 2002. Simple tests for peakedness, fat tails and leptokurtosis based on quantiles. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 43, 1–12.
  • Thompson, S.R., Sul, D., Bohl, M.T., 2002. Market efficiency and policy regime change: Seemingly unrelated error correction model estimation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84, 1042–1053.
  • Trede, M., 2002. Bootstrapping inequality measures under the null hypothesis: Is it worth the effort? Journal of Economics 9, 261–281.


  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 2001. International correlations and excess returns in European stock markets: Does EMU matter? Applied Financial Economics 11, 69–73.
  • Maasoumi, E., Trede, M., 2001. Comparing income mobility in Germany and the US using generalized entropy mobility measures. Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 551–559.
  • Wilfling, B., Maennig, W., 2001. Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime-switching: Modelling the effects of a possible delay. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 91–113.


  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Bohl, M.T., 2000. German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function. Economics Letters 66, 203–208.
  • Bohl, M.T., 2000. Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function. European Economic Review 44, 61–70.
  • Kempa, B., 2000. Excess volatility of real exchange rates in the EMS: Some evidence from structural VARs. Applied Economics 32, 73–79.
  • Pfister, U., 2000. Vom Kiepenkerl zu Karstadt: Einzelhandel und Warenkultur im 19. und frühen 20. Jahrhundert. Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte 87, 38–66.


  • Bohl, M.T., 1999. Persistence in government spending fluctuations: New evidence on the displacement effect. A comment on Goff. Public Choice 99, 465–466.
  • Bohl, M.T., 1999. Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model: A panel-based unit root investigation for West German Länder 1970–1994. Journal of Macroeconomics 21, 155–164.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 1999. Misalignments of real exchange rates and the credibility of nominal currency bands. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 135, 613–628.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., Pierdzioch, C., 1999. Exchange rate target zones and stock price volatility. International Journal of Finance and Economics 4, 297–311.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., Pierdzioch, C., 1999. The term structure of interest rates in a sticky-price target zone model. Journal of International Money and Finance 18, 817–834.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 1999. Sticky prices and alternative monetary feedback rules: How robust is the overshooting phenomenon? International Economic Journal 13, 1–18.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 1999. The theory of exchange rate target zones. Journal of Economic Surveys 13, 173–210.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 1999. Nonfundamental FX trading and excess volatility in credible target zones: Theory and empirical evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance 8, 55–70.


  • Bohl, M.T., Sell, F.L., 1998. Demand for cash balances in Germany: Theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence. Applied Economics 30, 1017–1026.
  • Heer, B., Trede, M., 1998. How did the German government parties succeed in stabilizing cyclical fluctuations? Finanzarchiv 55, 1–24.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., 1998. On the viability of exchange rate target zones in a Mundell-Fleming model with stochastic output shocks. Journal of Policy Modeling 20, 603–619.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 1998. A Kolmogorov-type test for second order stochastic dominance. Statistics and Probability Letters 37, 183–193.
  • Trede, M., 1998. Making mobility visible: A graphical device. Economics Letters 59, 77–82.
  • Trede, M., 1998. The age-profile of earnings mobility: Statistical inference of conditional kernel density estimates. Journal of Applied Econometrics 13, 397–409.


  • Heer, B., Trede, M., Wahrenburg, M., 1997. The effect of option trading at the DTB on the underlying stocks’ return variance. Empirical Economics 22, 233–245.
  • Kempa, B., Nelles, M., Pierdzioch, C., 1997. An analytical approximation of target zone exchange rate functions: The technique of collocation. Economics Letters 57, 339–343.


  • Bohl, M.T., 1996. Some international evidence on Wagner’s law. Public Finance 51, 185–200.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 1996. An L1-variant of the Cramer-von Mises test. Statistics and Probability Letters 26, 91–96.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 1996. Testing for first order stochastic dominance in either direction. Computational Statistics 11, 165–173.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 1996. Testing for first order stochastic dominance: A new distribution free test. The Statistician 45, 371–380.
  • Schmid, F., Trede, M., 1995. A distribution free test for the two sample problem for general alternatives. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 20, 409–419.
  • Wilfling, B., 1996. Lorenz-ordering of generalized beta-II income distributions. Journal of Econometrics 71, 381–388.
  • Wilfling, B., 1996. A sufficient condition for Lorenz ordering. Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics B58, 62–69.
  • Wilfling, B., 1996. Lorenz ordering of power-function order statistics. Statistics and Probability Letters 30, 313–319.
  • Wilfling, B., Krämer, W., 1993. Lorenz-ordering of Singh-Maddala income distributions. Economics Letters 43, 53–57.