The gold price in times of crisis
Zusammenfassung
© 2014 Elsevier Inc..Motivated by the recent gold price boom, this paper examines whether an asset bubble exists in the gold market. We approximate gold's fundamental value using several econometric models and apply a Markov regime-switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test which has substantial power for detecting explosive behavior. Although our results are sensitive to the specification of the fundamental value, we show that a model accounting for the current European sovereign debt crisis accurately tracks the gold price observed in the market. We also note that inflation in a general commodity price index and gold ETF demand have a potential to explain the price trajectory.
Zitieren als
Białkowski, J., Bohl, M., Stephan, P., & Wisniewski, T. (2015). The gold price in times of crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 339.Details
Publikationstyp
Forschungsartikel (Zeitschrift)
Begutachtet
Ja
Publikationsstatus
Veröffentlicht
Jahr
2015
Fachzeitschrift
International Review of Financial Analysis
Band
41
Erste Seite
339
Sprache
Englisch
ISSN
10575219
DOI