Vortrag "Turnout matters for referendum outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment in the Netherlands"

Herzliche Einladung zum Vortrag "Turnout matters for referendum outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment in the Netherlands" von Dr. Richard Jong-A-Pin von der Universität Groningen. Die Veranstaltung findet am 16. Januar von 16:00 Uhr bis 18:00 Uhr (c.t.) im Raum 101 in der Scharnhorststr. 100 statt (1. Stock, GraSP). Eine Anmeldung ist nicht erforderlich!

Weitere Informationen zum Vortrag finden Sie nachfolgend.

Abstract:

Previous research suggests that low turnout often does not matter much for election results. However, with the exception of Switzerland, little research has been done on the effect of turnout on the outcome of referenda, and those studies are vulnerable to endogeneity problems. We investigate how turnout influenced the result of a national referendum in the Netherlands in 2018, using a very strong instrument. We exploit the fact that 45 municipalities did not have concurrent elections for municipal councils because of amalgamation, generating a quasi-natural experiment. We find that concurrent elections boosted referendum turnout by 24 percentage points. This in turn significantly increased the shares of Yes votes. Although this did not alter the referendum outcome, this could well have happened under different circumstances, e.g., with more amalgamations.

Co-authors:

Harm Rienks, Maarten Allers