Effects of the Rule Change from Three to Five Substitutions in the Bundesliga
Alexander Dilger/Lars Vischer
July 2023

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to massive restrictions and changes in many areas of life, including professional sports. In football, many games were cancelled and then five instead of three substitutions were allowed with the unchanged maximum of three time-outs. This ini-tially temporary, but now permanent rule change affects the possibilities and thus the deci-sions of the coaches of the teams. We analyse 836 games with three possible substitutions and 1,000 games with five possible substitutions in the six seasons from 2017/2018 to 2022/2023 of the Bundesliga (first division of German men’s football). In addition to team statistics, data on substitutions was collected. The results show that the rule change changed the behaviour of coaches regarding the number of substitutions made and, in some cases, the timing of substitutions. More substitutions generally have a positive effect on the result of the game.