Home Bias and Referee Bias in European Football
The Role of Stoppage Time Allocation
Tom Böttger/Lars Vischer
January 2026

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Abstract

Football referees possess substantial discretion in allocating stoppage time, a decision that is comparatively opaque yet potentially consequential for match outcomes. This paper examines whether stoppage time allocation contributes to home advantage in contemporary European professional football. Using a dataset of 18,085 matches across the 2014/15–2023/24 seasons, we analyse first- and second-half stoppage time separately. Our results indicate that first-half stoppage time is largely explained by interruptions and shows no systematic dependence on match context. In contrast, second-half stoppage time is strongly context-dependent: close matches receive more stoppage time on average, no matter whether the home team is leading or trailing.